Leicester City Football Club are defying commercial logic to be the Premier League leaders, says an expert from De Montfort University Leicester (DMU).
Dr Neil Carter, who has been contributing to the LCFC match day magazine for three seasons, said although smaller clubs have clinched the title in the past, wins have been related to the economics of football since the 1960s.
This makes the hoped-for success "in theory, highly improbable", and is why City are earning the goodwill of football fans across the country.
Neil, senior research fellow at the International Centre for Sports History and Culture (ICSHC), said: "Since the Second World War, so-called smaller clubs Portsmouth, Burnley and Ipswich have won the league title.
"Before the 1960s, the maximum wage and the retain and transfer system restrained commercialisation within football, creating a relatively level playing field.
"This began to change after 1961 when the maximum wage was abolished and the transfer system was modified, allowing for a greater dominance by clubs from major cities which were able to afford the increases in wages and transfer fees."
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Some medium-sized clubs did have success, mainly due to inspirational managers, said Neil. Under Brian Clough both Derby and Nottingham Forest won the then First Division in the 1970s and two European Cups in Forest's case.
Neil said: "After that in the 1980s, smaller clubs occasionally triumphed - Watford finished second in the league and Wimbledon won the FA Cup - but their chances of winning the league gradually declined."
This changed in the 1990s, said Neil, who has so far written 70 historically-themed articles about the beautiful game and City's opposition for the heritage section of the club magazine. He said: "With the formation of the Premier League in 1992, football's rapid commercialisation further widened the financial and sporting gap between the bigger and smaller clubs.
"The best playing talent was increasingly concentrated in a smaller number of rich clubs, such as Manchester United. This gap has been further exacerbated through the consistent participation of these clubs in the lucrative European Champions League, as well as the influx of very rich foreign owners.
"So a seemingly inexorable commercial logic has been applied to football and who can win the league.
"Leicester in 2016 is defying this commercial logic, making any potential success highly improbable."
Neil believes the remarkable title challenge by the Foxes, who were 5,000-1 outsiders at the start of the campaign, is down to a combination of factors.
"The stars have aligned!" he said.
Neil cites the development of players such as Jamie Vardy and Danny Drinkwater, shrewd purchases including Riyad Mahrez and N'Golo Kante, luck with injuries, maintaining the momentum from last season's relegation run-in and intelligent management by Claudio Ranieri as contributory factors. This can be set against the under-performance, for a variety of reasons, of the usually dominant richer clubs.
"Leicester's team have gelled into an effective unit. If we knew how they had clicked everyone would capture and bottle it," added Neil.
"Goodwill is building up throughout the country because they are the underdogs and defying the odds.
"Leicester have had moments of success before, but if they win the league it will trump anything they have ever achieved."
Posted on Monday 11 April 2016