US Election: DMU expert predicts the first 100 days for Trump and Clinton


After the most vitriolic election campaign in living memory, it’s D-Day in the USA as a fiercely-divided America goes to the polls.

The bitter race for the White House culminates in a stark choice between the Washington insider who would be the nation’s first female president and the rabble-rousing billionaire who has sent shock waves through the US political system, and far beyond. 

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But how would the first 100 days of a Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton presidency play out? 

Dr Clodagh Harrington, senior lecturer in American Politics at De Montfort University Leicester (DMU) offers two very different scenarios.

THE NEXT 100 DAYS IF DONALD TRUMP WINS

“Symbolically and substantially, it will be really damaging,” says Dr Harrington. “But it won’t happen overnight. Trump says he has a 25-point action plan for day one, but the path to unpicking his predecessor's achievements will be rocky.

“He could repeal Obama’s executive orders, but controversial polices can be stymied. We would be going to hell in a handcart - but we’d be going there quite slowly.”

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“He says he’d take steps to abandoning Obamacare and tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement. He probably can’t, but he could orchestrate things. There’s a gap in the Supreme Court. He’s already said he would fill it with a social conservative. He could get cracking on with that kind of thing early on. 

“One of the first things Trump says he will do is tear up the deal with Iran. For the first time since 1979, America is having a dialogue with Iran. It’s a delicate process. The idea of someone coming along with big boots and stamping all over it is incredible.

“The markets hate uncertainty and instability. And things are quite fraught in the world at the moment, but the idea his relationship with Putin, the so-called bromance, will help is quite laughable.

“Trump would be so far out of his league. This isn’t a reality TV programme. Putin would have him for breakfast within 10 minutes.”

THE NEXT 100 DAYS IF HILLARY CLINTON WINS

“It wouldn’t blow our minds,” argues Dr Harrington. “She won’t do anything radical. She keeps reinforcing the message she will build on the Obama legacy, she won’t dismantle it.

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“The race against Bernie Sanders for the nomination obliged her to turn to the left. She’s got the message that income inequality is a huge issue. She’ll make the effort to draw people in. She’ll look tough on big business. Obamacare needs tweaking too. 

“If Clinton gets in and Congress stays Republican, she’s probably going to do a lot of banging her head against a wall.”

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION: WHO WILL WIN?

“It’s Hillary Clinton’s to lose,” says Dr Harrington. “Right now, this minute, the polls say Clinton is 3.5% ahead, but it’s not a given that she will win. The polls have a margin of error. People can lie. People can change their minds. Some of those people who signed up for the other candidates might decide on the day it is a wasted vote.

“And for everyone who loves Hillary Clinton, there’s someone who hates her or is indifferent.

“But I hope sanity will prevail.”

Dr Harrington, who chairs the Political Studies Association’s American Politics Group, says the campaign has been the most toxic of the modern era.

“It’s the first time there has been a female candidate, and that’s brought sexism into the equation, in the much the same way that Obama faced racism.

“And social media has become a dark pit of vileness. It’s allowed scope for unhindered hatred.

“The democratic process is not broken by this, but it’s been cheapened and degraded.

“America is genuinely divided, and I don’t know how people are going to come back together and unite after tomorrow.”

It comes down to a simple question, says Dr Harrington: “Do they want to watch the car pootle along the road or crash? Clinton is the pootling car. Lots of people have forgotten that’s the best option.”

Posted on Tuesday 8 November 2016

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